Russia is gearing up for a fresh ground campaign in southeastern Ukraine, with the objective of seizing the entire industrial Donbas region by September. This assessment was shared by Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR), in remarks to the Financial Times.
Skibitskyi noted that Russia has stepped up its use of ballistic missiles against Ukrainian cities. He said Moscow is producing roughly 60 Iskander missiles each month and has increased its number of launch platforms. At the same time, Ukraine remains short of advanced air defense systems—particularly U.S.-supplied Patriot batteries—leaving large parts of the country insufficiently protected.
He emphasized that Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, especially in the energy sector, suffered heavy damage during the winter due to sustained Russian strikes and continues to be at high risk as Russian forces refine their attack methods.
According to Skibitskyi, the escalating wave of missile and drone attacks is not random but part of a coordinated strategy aimed at crippling infrastructure and shaping conditions ahead of a broader offensive planned for the spring and summer.
He added that Russia is assembling forces for this push by committing strategic reserves and deploying an additional 20,000 troops to the theater. With an estimated 680,000 Russian personnel already involved in the war, the Kremlin’s goal remains the full occupation of Donbas by early autumn, based on Ukrainian intelligence estimates shared with the FT.
Skibitskyi argued that these preparations indicate Moscow has little genuine interest in negotiations and is instead focused on prolonging the conflict.
Separately, President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that capturing the entire Donbas would come at an enormous human cost for Russia—potentially between 300,000 and one million casualties—and reaffirmed that Ukrainian forces will not withdraw from the region.
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